The Director of Operations at Direct Access Statistical Services, Patrick Yaw Baah, says Vice-President Mahamudu Bawumia’s commanding victory in the NPP primaries ran counter to many data-driven projections, describing the result as a surprise even to seasoned analysts.
Bawumia secured 56.48 percent of the vote, comfortably defeating his closest challenger Kennedy Agyapong, who polled about 23 percent.
Speaking on the Asaase Breakfast Show on Monday (2 February), Baah said his team had expected a tighter race, particularly given Agyapong’s perceived popularity among grassroots supporters and his record in private-sector job creation.
“This election has been a shock,” he said. “Looking at the unemployment situation and Kennedy’s industrial background, many of us thought his numbers would increase. But the results went the other way.”
Baah noted that internal party elections often serve as predictors for general elections, arguing that a strong mandate within the party provides a solid foundation for national appeal.
“Anytime a candidate gets a higher share in internal elections, it usually positions them better for the general election,” he said.
However, he advised the NPP not to rely solely on the numbers but to address strategic weaknesses ahead of 2028.
He recommended that the party:
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prioritise unity,
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rebrand Bawumia’s public image,
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intensify youth engagement, and
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focus on tackling unemployment.
“The youth are frustrated. Many are turning to betting because they have no jobs. That’s a serious social and economic problem,” he said. “Policies must directly address employment and livelihoods.”
Baah also urged the party to “own its economic record” rather than dismissing improvements under the current administration.
“If things are improving, acknowledge what you started. Don’t deny reality. That honesty builds credibility,” he added.
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