“Recovery gap”: macro gains fail to translate into lived experience — analyst

Ghana’s apparent macroeconomic recovery is not translating into improved living conditions for many citizens, according to Hayford Mensah Ayerakwa, Director of Research at Africa Policy Lens.

Speaking on the Asaase Breakfast Show on Thursday (7 May), Ayerakwa said findings from the group’s first-ever Ghana Well-being Tracker reveal a widening “recovery gap” between headline economic indicators and the lived experiences of households.

“The pace at which prices are increasing may have slowed, but the general cost of living remains elevated,” he said. “Affordability is still a major challenge for the average Ghanaian.”

The report aggregates multiple indicators — including cost of living, income security, employment conditions, household financial resilience, and business performance — into a standardized index. One key measure, the cost of living pressure index, scored 44.7 out of 100, reflecting persistent strain on household purchasing power.

Low demand, rising costs

Ayerakwa said small and medium-sized enterprises are also struggling, with weak consumer demand emerging as a major threat.

“Demand is extremely low,” he noted. “At the same time, the cost of doing business has gone up, particularly due to higher utility costs and labour expenses.”

He warned that this dynamic is making locally produced goods less competitive compared to imports, undermining domestic production and job creation.

“You cannot build a sustainable economy if local businesses are not supported,” he added.

Fear-driven financial resilience

Despite these pressures, the report found a surprisingly high financial stress and resilience score of 78.9, which Ayerakwa attributed to households avoiding debt.

“People are reluctant to take loans because of past negative experiences or fear they cannot repay,” he explained.

While this improves short-term financial stability, he cautioned that it may limit business expansion and economic activity if access to credit remains constrained.

Gender disparities persist

The report also found that women are slightly more disadvantaged across several well-being indicators, highlighting ongoing inequalities despite years of policy interventions.

“We still have a lot to do to ensure inclusivity,” Ayerakwa said.

Call for policy shift

Ayerakwa urged policymakers to move beyond traditional macroeconomic metrics such as GDP and inflation, and instead focus on measuring and improving citizens’ well-being.

“It is not enough to stabilise the economy,” he said. “People must feel that stability in their daily lives.”

He proposed a stronger policy focus on cost-of-living interventions, support for local businesses, and improved access to credit — potentially through cooperative systems that reduce risk for borrowers.

The think tank plans to publish the well-being tracker twice a year to inform policy decisions, particularly ahead of national budget cycles.

“We need to measure impact more frequently,” he said. “Otherwise, the economy may look good on paper, but people will continue to struggle in reality.”