A new poll by policy research group APL has revealed a tightly contested race among potential flagbearer hopefuls of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), with no clear frontrunner emerging ahead of the 2028 elections.
According to Hayford Mensah Ayerakwa, Director of Research and Innovation at APL, the survey shows a near dead-heat between Johnson Asiedu Nketiah and Julius Debrah.
The poll, which sampled 2,408 constituency executives of the NDC across all 16 regions and 276 constituencies, placed Asiedu Nketiah at 31.9% and Debrah at 30.1% when respondents were asked who they would support as flagbearer.
When respondents were asked who they would vote for if elections were held immediately, Asiedu Nketiah polled 32.7% while Debrah secured 30.9%, maintaining the narrow margin.
“This shows clearly that there is no frontrunner at the moment,” Ayerakwa, said on the Asaase Breakfast Show on Wednesday (22 April). “The difference is not statistically significant, and anything could change.”
Other contenders trailed behind, with Haruna Iddrisu securing about 17%, while Cassiel Ato Forson polled between 13% and 14%. Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa and Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang recorded minimal support.
The study also found that perceptions of competitiveness differ among delegates. While Ato Forson secured lower vote intention, 27.1% of respondents identified him as a major threat in the race—second only to Asiedu Nketiah.
Mensah Ayerakwa explained that this mismatch highlights potential strategic miscalculations among candidates.
“If you misread who your real opponent is, you may focus your campaign wrongly,” he noted.
The APL research team concluded that the race remains fluid, with alliances likely to determine the eventual winner.
“At the moment, two people are leading, but among the two, anything could happen,” he added.
APL says it plans to release an expanded poll by the end of May, incorporating branch-level executives to provide a broader picture of the race.
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