Political researcher and statistician Professor Smart Sarpong says he stands by his pre-election survey on the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential primary, insisting research must remain neutral and scientific rather than partisan.
Speaking on The Forum on Saturday (31 January) as delegates voted across the country, Sarpong said researchers should not “campaign” for outcomes or treat their projections as prophecy.
“Researchers are neutral to the situation. I don’t fear whether my study is confirmed or disproved,” he said. “Once your methodology is right and you control the noise and biases, you let the data speak.”
He criticised analysts who become emotionally invested in their predictions, describing that as unethical.
“When I hear people say they’ve put their life on the line for their prediction, it means you are involved. Don’t be involved. Stay out,” he said.
Sarpong said his past projections, including the 2020 general election, had closely matched final results, but stressed that the purpose of research was to guide stakeholders, not to seek validation.
“Research is not prophecy. It is science,” he added.
On the NPP contest, he said his study assessed delegates’ views based on popularity, ability to unify the party and suitability for leadership.
According to his findings, former Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia led on all three indicators — scoring about 59 percent on popularity, 40 percent on unity and over 57 percent on suitability.
Kennedy Agyapong followed with roughly 31 percent on popularity and 24 percent on unity, while other aspirants polled in single digits.
Sarpong said candidates who rank consistently high across those indicators typically have an electoral advantage.
“If one person is seen as the most popular, the most unifier and the most suitable, logically votes are likely to go to that person,” he said.
He added that final results would be compared with his projections once polling closes.
Voting in the NPP primary is ongoing nationwide as delegates elect the party’s flagbearer ahead of the 2028 general elections.
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